Berliner Boersenzeitung - Debris falling from the sky: more often, more risk

EUR -
AED 4.02547
AFN 78.958383
ALL 99.102869
AMD 431.181955
ANG 1.961978
AOA 1003.890567
ARS 1184.765046
AUD 1.813586
AWG 1.97271
AZN 1.867466
BAM 1.955265
BBD 2.22659
BDT 133.983319
BGN 1.955265
BHD 0.412787
BIF 3277.602688
BMD 1.09595
BND 1.474296
BOB 7.619914
BRL 6.405394
BSD 1.102698
BTN 94.079244
BWP 15.358795
BYN 3.608812
BYR 21480.619234
BZD 2.215094
CAD 1.559263
CDF 3148.664634
CHF 0.944431
CLF 0.02729
CLP 1047.223301
CNY 7.980215
CNH 7.994999
COP 4582.945323
CRC 557.847278
CUC 1.09595
CUP 29.042674
CVE 110.234821
CZK 25.256829
DJF 196.376238
DKK 7.461451
DOP 69.640934
DZD 146.03502
EGP 55.406831
ERN 16.439249
ETB 145.347308
FJD 2.537019
FKP 0.847795
GBP 0.850992
GEL 3.01429
GGP 0.847795
GHS 16.970527
GIP 0.847795
GMD 78.997119
GNF 9480.074229
GTQ 8.45127
GYD 228.536272
HKD 8.520633
HNL 28.038338
HRK 7.531044
HTG 143.530764
HUF 404.54591
IDR 18346.949665
ILS 4.100568
IMP 0.847795
INR 93.650132
IQD 1430.891791
IRR 46360.405806
ISK 144.204462
JEP 0.847795
JMD 172.42419
JOD 0.777072
JPY 161.061946
KES 141.527433
KGS 95.002298
KHR 4365.330633
KMF 489.529208
KPW 986.361205
KRW 1599.015607
KWD 0.337157
KYD 0.910826
KZT 556.162432
LAK 23685.841231
LBP 98372.711411
LKR 324.07413
LRD 218.985421
LSL 20.902803
LTL 3.236056
LVL 0.66293
LYD 5.289988
MAD 10.429326
MDL 19.551233
MGA 5069.578931
MKD 61.05679
MMK 2300.919896
MNT 3846.361639
MOP 8.775473
MRU 43.593447
MUR 49.000806
MVR 16.923331
MWK 1897.317993
MXN 22.386696
MYR 4.861215
MZN 70.003894
NAD 20.902803
NGN 1681.066767
NIO 40.290501
NOK 11.790932
NPR 149.910449
NZD 1.95777
OMR 0.421946
PAB 1.09595
PEN 4.037053
PGK 4.46999
PHP 62.764717
PKR 306.904853
PLN 4.245513
PYG 8757.469729
QAR 3.989667
RON 4.952931
RSD 116.586887
RUB 93.840941
RWF 1555.449869
SAR 4.110221
SBD 9.312612
SCR 15.97682
SDG 658.021292
SEK 10.947921
SGD 1.470849
SHP 0.861245
SLE 24.933268
SLL 22981.523891
SOS 624.324825
SRD 40.248477
STD 22683.951476
SVC 9.589967
SYP 14249.994157
SZL 20.902803
THB 37.792726
TJS 11.899889
TMT 3.833642
TND 3.357047
TOP 2.638671
TRY 41.641737
TTD 7.422798
TWD 36.332658
TZS 2923.758392
UAH 45.158896
UGX 4009.400205
USD 1.09595
UYU 46.167964
UZS 14171.813622
VES 77.086835
VND 28252.54745
VUV 134.896075
WST 3.078778
XAF 652.705611
XAG 0.037037
XAU 0.000361
XCD 2.966325
XDR 0.817067
XOF 652.705611
XPF 119.331742
YER 269.409315
ZAR 20.929909
ZMK 9864.868719
ZMW 30.636217
ZWL 352.89544
  • SCS

    -0.0600

    10.68

    -0.56%

  • BCC

    0.8100

    95.44

    +0.85%

  • CMSC

    0.0300

    22.29

    +0.13%

  • RBGPF

    69.0200

    69.02

    +100%

  • CMSD

    0.1600

    22.83

    +0.7%

  • RIO

    -3.7600

    54.67

    -6.88%

  • BCE

    0.0500

    22.71

    +0.22%

  • JRI

    -0.8600

    11.96

    -7.19%

  • GSK

    -2.4800

    36.53

    -6.79%

  • BTI

    -2.0600

    39.86

    -5.17%

  • RELX

    -3.2800

    48.16

    -6.81%

  • AZN

    -5.4600

    68.46

    -7.98%

  • RYCEF

    -1.5500

    8.25

    -18.79%

  • VOD

    -0.8700

    8.5

    -10.24%

  • BP

    -2.9600

    28.38

    -10.43%

  • NGG

    -3.4600

    65.93

    -5.25%

Debris falling from the sky: more often, more risk
Debris falling from the sky: more often, more risk / Photo: Ronan LIETAR - AFP/File

Debris falling from the sky: more often, more risk

It is still not clear what exactly fell onto a Kenyan village last month, but such events are likely to become increasingly common given the amount of space debris drifting above the planet.

Text size:

- What we know

A metallic ring of roughly 2.5 metres (8 feet) in diameter and weighing some 500 kilogrammes (1,100 pounds), crashed into Mukuku village, in Makueni county, in the south of the country on December 30.

The Kenya Space Agency (KSA) has opened an investigation and is examining the possibility that it might have been the separation ring from a rocket.

Other theories have already surfaced however, and a KSA spokesman has said they have not ruled out anything.

- The theories being examined

It is not even certain that what crashed in Kenya came from outer space.

But for Romain Lucken who runs Aldoria, a French start-up that tracks debris in space, it is "absolutely plausible" that it did.

He said he thought it might be part of the upper stage of a Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) developed by India's space agency.

"There is a mission that was sent up on December 30 with a return date that fits well, and most of all, a point of re-entry that fits very well, to within a few dozen kilometres," he told AFP.

Aldoria, which has 15 telescopes around the world, searches for information on launches and then works out flight paths based on "the typical trajectories of each of the main launch sites".

But Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, is not convinced.

It was McDowell who identified a piece of the International Space Station (ISS) that crashed down on a house in Florida last April.

"I do not believe this object came from space. Maybe fell off an airplane," he told AFP. "Give me evidence it is space debris."

He has not however entirely ruled out that it is part of an Ariane 5 V184 launch in 2008 that finally returned to earth.

But the French aerospace group told AFP: "This piece does not belong to an element from a European launcher operated by Arianespace."

John Crassidis at New York's SUNY, which works with NASA on space debris, endorsed the assessment released by the Kenya Space Agency.

"I think their technical assessments are 100 percent accurate, and they're going to figure out what country it came from, because every country does things a little bit differently," he said.

While it could be a separation ring from a rocket, as the KSA was considering, it might also have come from the upper stage of a rocket. "Those tend to be smaller," he told AFP.

Christophe Bonnal, a French specialist in space debris, said the debris might have come from a military launcher.

"They are armoured, which fits with the fact that it is very big and heavy," he said. But then it could also have come from a digger or a tank, he added.

- Assessing the risk

So far, at least, such incidents have not caused any deaths, but since the number of space launches is rising, so too are the risks.

"Ten years ago, an object that might create impact fragments re-entered the atmosphere every two weeks," said Stijn Lemmens, a specialist in debris at the European Space Agency (ESA). "Now, that can happen twice a week."

For Lucken, at Aldoria, it is just a question of time.

"It's going to end up falling on critical infrastructure, like a nuclear power station, an oil tanker or homes," he warned.

"It's our Sword of Damocles," said Christophe Bonnal, referring to the parable of the sword suspended by a thread over a ruler's head.

But geography plays in our favour, he added, given that 71 percent of the planet is covered by ocean and 10 percent by deserts. Only 3.3 percent of Earth is densely populated, he said.

So far, said Lucken, about 30,000 pieces of debris measuring more than 10 centimetres have been identified orbiting the earth, and more than a million larger than one centimetre.

All of them were potentially dangerous, he added.

And that catalogue is not an exhaustive list, Bonnal pointed out, since it does not include various military objects launched into space.

"If it's a piece of a US missile, we'll probably never know," he said.

In Europe, said Lucken, there are rules obliging operators to ensure controlled re-entries in uninhabited zones, such as in the South Pacific -- or to be sure such objects would be completely destroyed.

"But that's the theory. Once the mission is launched, anything can happen."

And no one is going to be chasing them to pay out compensation if something goes wrong, he added.

And, as another observer noted, part of the problem lies elsewhere.

China is by far the worst offender, said Crassidis.

"We have these rules, but China and Russia don't really follow any rules."

burs-tsz-agu-tq-neo/jj/gv

(S.G.Stein--BBZ)