Berliner Boersenzeitung - War in Ukraine offers redemption to maligned US intel community

EUR -
AED 3.973743
AFN 72.902233
ALL 98.375571
AMD 417.79432
ANG 1.945844
AOA 986.133506
ARS 1068.267744
AUD 1.653032
AWG 1.947377
AZN 1.839693
BAM 1.955305
BBD 2.179969
BDT 129.017365
BGN 1.95627
BHD 0.407693
BIF 3138.035244
BMD 1.081876
BND 1.431051
BOB 7.460113
BRL 6.233336
BSD 1.079637
BTN 90.755044
BWP 14.492602
BYN 3.533306
BYR 21204.776285
BZD 2.17627
CAD 1.505853
CDF 3148.259798
CHF 0.938418
CLF 0.036956
CLP 1019.721489
CNY 7.717785
CNH 7.702197
COP 4719.155418
CRC 554.25724
CUC 1.081876
CUP 28.669723
CVE 110.237116
CZK 25.353879
DJF 192.263144
DKK 7.460507
DOP 65.024454
DZD 144.297528
EGP 52.717527
ERN 16.228145
ETB 129.016558
FJD 2.467322
FKP 0.827818
GBP 0.832012
GEL 2.953711
GGP 0.827818
GHS 17.544562
GIP 0.827818
GMD 75.193377
GNF 9311.730682
GTQ 8.345889
GYD 225.882863
HKD 8.407061
HNL 27.235363
HRK 7.453079
HTG 142.285324
HUF 405.477492
IDR 17028.300858
ILS 4.035942
IMP 0.827818
INR 90.973088
IQD 1414.355314
IRR 45552.402923
ISK 148.498191
JEP 0.827818
JMD 170.806005
JOD 0.766941
JPY 165.872743
KES 139.561795
KGS 92.836702
KHR 4388.930395
KMF 492.741184
KPW 973.688463
KRW 1496.656931
KWD 0.331692
KYD 0.899781
KZT 529.261016
LAK 23669.01296
LBP 96736.830569
LKR 317.0598
LRD 207.301396
LSL 19.12304
LTL 3.1945
LVL 0.654416
LYD 5.21173
MAD 10.651106
MDL 19.353015
MGA 4990.82984
MKD 61.599419
MMK 3513.892154
MNT 3676.215837
MOP 8.639815
MRU 42.689202
MUR 49.885388
MVR 16.617965
MWK 1872.161049
MXN 21.700092
MYR 4.753221
MZN 69.142553
NAD 19.12304
NGN 1775.975519
NIO 39.730318
NOK 11.859675
NPR 145.209612
NZD 1.814788
OMR 0.416517
PAB 1.079627
PEN 4.06381
PGK 4.323946
PHP 63.080941
PKR 299.874733
PLN 4.338975
PYG 8594.905376
QAR 3.936404
RON 4.975118
RSD 117.105565
RUB 105.443931
RWF 1468.321804
SAR 4.063125
SBD 9.015862
SCR 15.191686
SDG 650.753943
SEK 11.51203
SGD 1.433492
SHP 0.827818
SLE 24.559198
SLL 22686.402474
SOS 617.041069
SRD 37.138645
STD 22392.65596
SVC 9.446698
SYP 2718.247053
SZL 19.12825
THB 36.545776
TJS 11.498292
TMT 3.786567
TND 3.344254
TOP 2.533864
TRY 37.097237
TTD 7.317149
TWD 34.666025
TZS 2942.70341
UAH 44.65603
UGX 3956.999083
USD 1.081876
UYU 44.928635
UZS 13803.508424
VEF 3919153.881248
VES 45.625543
VND 27406.63241
VUV 128.442565
WST 3.030535
XAF 655.788089
XAG 0.032073
XAU 0.000398
XCD 2.923825
XDR 0.81151
XOF 655.797179
XPF 119.331742
YER 270.820683
ZAR 19.12303
ZMK 9738.24388
ZMW 28.745994
ZWL 348.36374
  • RBGPF

    62.3500

    62.35

    +100%

  • NGG

    -0.8800

    65.12

    -1.35%

  • RYCEF

    0.0400

    7.25

    +0.55%

  • RELX

    -0.2500

    47.91

    -0.52%

  • CMSC

    -0.1600

    24.57

    -0.65%

  • BTI

    -0.4500

    34.46

    -1.31%

  • RIO

    0.4000

    66.58

    +0.6%

  • GSK

    0.2900

    38.17

    +0.76%

  • AZN

    -0.7900

    75.22

    -1.05%

  • BP

    -1.6900

    29.36

    -5.76%

  • SCS

    -0.3800

    12.21

    -3.11%

  • VOD

    -0.2600

    9.28

    -2.8%

  • CMSD

    -0.0400

    24.84

    -0.16%

  • BCC

    -6.9800

    131.64

    -5.3%

  • BCE

    -0.2300

    32.46

    -0.71%

  • JRI

    -0.0900

    12.98

    -0.69%

War in Ukraine offers redemption to maligned US intel community
War in Ukraine offers redemption to maligned US intel community

War in Ukraine offers redemption to maligned US intel community

Caught on the back foot by the Taliban's lightning takeover of Kabul last August, US intelligence services have earned a measure of redemption with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which they predicted and detailed with impressive precision.

Text size:

According to several US officials consulted by AFP, the US military understood as early as October 2021 that Russian troop movements on the border with Ukraine were not normal -- Moscow said they were conducting regular drills, but the formations on the ground did not match up.

The Pentagon voiced its concerns to the White House, and US intelligence services quickly got to work to try to learn more. Some of Joe Biden's aides doubted Russia could be planning a major assault, but the US leader took the situation seriously.

On November 2, Biden sent CIA Director Bill Burns -- a former ambassador to Russia -- to Moscow for talks with President Vladimir Putin.

Burns, who speaks Russian, let Putin know that Washington had "serious" concerns about his troop movements, CNN reported at the time.

Half a dozen colonels from the US Joint Chiefs of Staff intelligence directorate pored over information received from CIA analysts and the National Security Agency's listening services to try to determine the Russian plan of attack.

From the basements of the Pentagon, "these unsung heroes have driven the entire intelligence community," said one of those officials, on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive national security matters.

He added that the NSA had done "unbelievable work."

- Paths of attack -

In January, that assiduous intelligence work allowed the colonels to draw up a map that predicted with astonishing precision how Russia's military would attempt to invade Ukraine -- from the north towards Kyiv, from the east via Kharkiv and from the south through Mariupol.

Wanting above all else to prevent armed conflict, the Biden administration quickly made the decision to publicly reveal an unusual amount of classified information about Russia's preparations for war.

In early February, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Moscow was set to "produce a very graphic propaganda video, which would include corpses and actors that would be depicting mourners," pretending the scene was the result of a Ukrainian attack -- a pretext for invasion.

Soon after, journalists were invited to meet with senior intelligence officials who hardly ever speak to the press. Those officials said Russia was stepping up its preparations for a major military assault on Kyiv.

Reporters were shown a map with the predicted Russian troop movements. They were even given an expected date of attack: mid-February, after the conclusion of the Beijing Winter Olympics.

The scenario offered that day to the world's media was met with skepticism in Europe.

- The date -

The exact date of the attack was eventually pushed back a few days, but the Biden administration was so sure that its intelligence was correct that on the evening of February 23, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he believed an invasion would begin before the night was over stateside.

On the morning of February 24, Russian forces invaded Ukraine.

The US intelligence community had been right all along, except for a few details.

US analysts did not predict how fiercely Ukrainians would defend their country, nor did they count on the dogged determination of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose bravery has galvanized his compatriots.

According to intelligence predictions, many in the US feared Kyiv would fall within 48 hours, and that Zelensky would be quickly ousted in favor of a pro-Russian leader.

As the invasion enters its third week, the Ukrainian capital remains out of Russian hands and Zelensky earned a standing ovation from British lawmakers after he addressed them via video link.

US intelligence also worried the Ukrainian military would be quickly paralyzed by a Russian cyberattack, which did not materialize.

That's because, while Kyiv has modernized its armed forces, its Soviet-era planes have not been upgraded, and use the same communications systems as the Russian army -- meaning Moscow cannot cripple the Ukrainians without hurting their own effort.

US intelligence has estimated that war in Ukraine could have a horrific human toll, with 25,000 to 50,000 civilians killed, as many as 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers slain and up to 10,000 Russian military personnel killed.

Officials raised the possibility of between one and five million refugees, many of whom would be headed towards Poland.

Indeed, as of Wednesday, the Pentagon put the number of Russian fatalities at 2,000-4,000, and the United Nations said more than two million refugees have already left the eastern European country.

(K.Lüdke--BBZ)