Berliner Boersenzeitung - Counting begins after Colombia vote between ex-guerrilla and maverick

Abstention was expected to be high among Colombia's 39 million voters who faced a stark choice between electing their first ever left-wing president or a maverick outsider dubbed the Colombian Donald Trump.

"These are the tightest elections in the country's recent history," said the Sunday edition of the El Tiempo daily.

Amid fears a tight result could spark post-election violence, some 320,000 police and military have been deployed to ensure security.

The electoral observer mission said one of Petro's election monitors and a soldier were killed, both in the south.

Colombia is no stranger to political violence, with five presidential candidates having been murdered over the course of the 20th century.

Several candidates received death threats before the first round.

When voting in Bogota, Petro, 62, urged his supporters to turn out as rumors swirled on social media of election irregularities.

"Today, undoubtedly we must defeat any attempt at fraud with massive participation," he said.

The national registrar, Alexander Vega, denounced such fears as "disinformation" while Hernandez, who voted in the northern city of Bucaramanga where he was mayor from 2016 to 2019, accused Petro of "creating an atmosphere of fraud."

"It's very dangerous for candidates to play with this idea (of fraud), it could easily erupt into post-election unrest," Elizabeth Dickinson, Colombia analyst at the International Crisis Group in Bogota, told AFP.

Although Petro comfortably topped last month's first round with 40 percent, 12 points ahead of Hernandez, opinion polls had the two candidates neck and neck.

Polls closed at 4:00 pm after eight hours, with the top electoral body predicting the winner would be known by 7:00 pm.

- 'Whoever wins, it won't be good' -

With the traditional political powers suffering a chastening first round defeat, a lot of early voters seemed undecided, not just about who to vote for but what the candidates represent.

Although Colombia has never had a left wing government before, Petro has been in politics for 30 years, while Hernandez is an unconventional outsider with little experience.

"Whoever wins today won't be good but at least it will be a change," said Valentina Rios, 19, who voted in Bogota.

"For me, neither of them represents change," countered Alejandro Bueno, 20, an economics student in the capital, who hopes for "a peaceful transition to the next government."

The successor to unpopular conservative Ivan Duque will have to deal with a country reeling economically from the coronavirus pandemic, a spike in drug-trafficking related violence and deep-rooted anger at the political establishment that spilled over into mass anti-government protests in April 2021.

Almost 40 percent of the country lives in poverty while 11 percent are unemployed.

Left-wing ideology is intrinsically linked in many Colombians' minds to the country's six-decade long multi-faceted conflict.

"Neither of the two is good ... but the least bad is Rodolfo. The other one was a guerrilla," said Ruth Sepulveda, 56, a homemaker in Bucaramanga.

Petro was a radical leftist urban guerrilla in the 1980s and spent almost two years in jail.

But his M-19 group made peace with the state in 1990 and formed a political party.

"The worry comes from the experience of leftist governments in the region," Patricia Munoz, an expert at Pontifical Javerian University, told AFP.

Michael Shifter, from the Inter-American Dialogue think tank, said fears Colombia could turn into another authoritarian populist socialist state like neighboring Venezuela "borders on hysteria."

However, he said it's understandable since Colombia has been affected more than any other Latin American country by "the Venezuela tragedy and nightmare."

- 'I'll end corruption' -

Until a few months ago, Hernandez was a virtual unknown outside of Bucaramanga.

He made the fight against corruption his main campaign pledge, although he is himself under investigation for graft.

He has vowed to "reduce the size of the state, end corruption and replace inept officials."

But his other policies are unconventional and he lacks a clear program.

"As a businessman he's used to resolving conflicts in a direct and quick way, but the exercise of governance requires dialogue, agreements, long meetings to find common ground," said Munoz.

That will be Hernandez's challenge if he is elected, given he has almost no representation in congress.

Whoever wins, for the first time Colombia will have a black woman vice president, either Petro's running mate and environmentalist feminist Francia Marquez or conservative academic Mirelen Castillo.

(A.Lehmann--BBZ)